Lately I have been digging around a bit in whisky news from previous years found via Google. Some rather interesting observations can be made, if you read those old articles now and compare them to the situation today.
1 – Don’t believe in forecasts
In a very interesting article in Marketing Magazine from September 2006 there is a prediction for the Scotch whisky market until 2011:
Though the value of deluxe, malt and imported whiskies will continue to grow, over the next five years the blended whisky market is expected to continue its decline at about 9% a year to reach £829m in 2011. The total market will fall to £2.03bn in the same period.
Now have a look at the official 2012 SWA statistical report. For some reason there is no account of the total market, but only looking at the export statistics we can see how wrong this forcast was:
Instead of the predicted contiuous decline exports alone rose year after year to £4.22bn. This is more than twice the predicted volume of the global market.
Market forecasts don’t have to be wrong, of course. It could well be that predictions made today will turn out correct in five years time. But this example proves pars pro toto that you can never be sure. Long term market forecasts have the same accuracy as long term weather forecasts. They may turn out to be correct, but they may just as well be completely off. So why make them in the first place?
And while we have this nice long term statistics in front of our eyes, why not also look at the development in the 1980s? Between 1980 and 1986 19 Scottish distilleries were closed because of the economic crisis back then, peaking at a whopping 11 in the annus horribilis 1983 only. You can see the development in the Scotch Whisky Distillery Timeline.
But look what happened to the whisky market. Exports by value continued to grow almost year by year, more than doubling from 1981 to 1990 to become more or less flat from 1995 to 2005. Only in the years 2006 to 2011 the market has picked up again. Now was it really such a good decision to close all those distilleries because of a temporarily difficult situation?
2 – The perpetual quest for rejuvenation and demystification
I found a very interesting New York Times article from May 1994, over 20 years ago.
These days, the talk of the industry is about appealing to a younger audience, one that – to the chagrin of traditionalists – prefers its whisky awash in Coca-Cola.
“Here people say, ‘Oh my god, not with Coca-Cola,'” said Campbell Evans, spokesman for the Scotch Whisky Association in Edinburgh. “But our view is let them drink scotch and Coke rather than brandy and Coke or rum and Coke.”
With their sights now fixed on what one disdainful industry marketing executive calls “disco-going teenyboppers,” the distillers have invaded trendy bars from Barcelona to Boston. With them they have brought cases of free scotch and a message that the stuff goes great with Coca-Cola, 7- Up or whatever else appeals to younger taste buds.
Promoting Scotch as a trendy alternative for mixing to attract a broader audience – sounds familiar, doesn’t it? This is not a recent phenomeon as some might think. Brand ambassadors and marketing departments haven’t discovered this topic only yesterday.
Tony Greener, chairman of the market leader, Guinness – which makes Johnnie Walker, Dewars, Bells and others – refers to the “lost generation” of scotch drinkers: the youth market. He says scotch has “lost its relevance to young people.”
Almost six years later, in January 2000, the BBC reports that Diageo, the sucessor of Guiness, intends
to boost sluggish sales by appealing to a younger generation who still regard whisky as a “dad’s” drink in a fireside armchair.
Out go images of Bravehearts, castles and old men waxing lyrical about past times over a nip or two.
“The imagery of Scotland has become cliched and stereotyped and not that relevant to today’s young adults.”
In the aforementioned 2006 Marketing Magazine article we find the snippet:
Despite efforts to broaden the appeal of a ‘wee dram’, Scotch whisky is suffering, as younger drinkers are shunning it in favour of lager, wine and white spirits.
In July 2009 The Guardian continues to lament:
In 2008 UK sales of vodka overtook blended scotch whisky for the first time, and while many in the industry dismiss this as a result of youthful palates seeking neutral spirits as a delivery system for alcohol, the truth is that scotch suffers from a serious image problem. It is seen by most as an old man’s drink.
Already in the 1994 article industry insiders had complained:
“Five years ago, a typical whisky ad consisted of a bottle and glass shot with a tag line that reminisced about the hills, haggis and heather,” said Mr. Shaw [Charles Shaw of Whyte & Mackay]. He insists his company was among the first to take the daring step of placing those bottles and glasses in the hands of humans in their ads.
Mr. Espey [James Espey of Chivas] is even more emphatic. He calls kilts and other traditional Scottish elements “passé.”
I cannot help but face-palm about the misconceptions the whisky industry has about their own marketing. I have collected hundreds of old whisky ads, and the latest reference of a kilt I could find was from a long-running Dewars’ campaign that ended in the 1970s:
There are plenty of examples of Scotch whisky advertisements from the 1960s to the 1980s that contradict this perception. Just two examples:
Please note the glasses in the hands in the 1969 Johnnie Walker ad.
But yet the Scotch whisky industry has still not managed to emancipate from this dusty image of bagpipes and kilts. This is exemplified by the fact that industry members continue to wear kilts at whisky events like trade shows and product launches while their marketing people continue to pray the mantra that kilts are tokens of a long-gone past. If they keep acting schizophrenic like this, the public perception of Scotch whisky is very unlikely to ever change.
One of the vehicles designed to “rejuvenate” Scotch is Monkey Shoulder, launched already in 2005. How about this gem of PR drivel:
“With the launch of Monkey Shoulder in the UK, we are looking to demystify malt whisky and offer new consumers an accessible, great tasting malt that retains authenticity whilst breaking the more traditional malt mold. The feedback so far from the trade has been very positive and we hope consumers will be as upbeat about the product.”
Nine years later, in February 2014, Men’s Folio presents Monkey Soulder as if it was the latest innovation:
Monkey Shoulder Triple Malt Brings Scotch To A New Generation Of Drinkers
While authentic to its core – it’s named after an old tale about distillery workers – Monkey Shoulder is a Scotch that blows the cobwebs away from the whisky world and banishes the talk of baffling taste profiles, regional specifications, age statements and distillery nuances that can put people off.
The time has come to demystify the stuffy world of whisky and introduce Scotch to a new generation of drinkers – and Monkey Shoulder is leading the charge.
Actually it was a press release for the introduction of Monkey Shoulder in South Africa where demystification seems not to have caught on yet.
There has been quite a bit of whisky demystification going on since 2004 when it apparently was invented, since I could not find older references.
But single malt is a product which remains extremely difficult to understand – despite the best efforts of the distillers to demystify – and even many regular Scotch drinkers could be hard pressed to distinguish between, say, a Lowland or a Speyside malt.
[foodanddrinkeurope.com, July 2004]
Scotch whisky drinkers are used to serious old-world names such as Glenfiddich, Laphroaig, and Lagavulin. So where do The Rich Spicy One, The Smokey Peaty One, and The Smooth Sweeter One fit in? These three new malts from Jon, Mark & Robbo’s Easy Drinking Whisky Co., which are just hitting store shelves, represent an attempt by some distillers to demystify a sometimes intimidating spirit and bring new drinkers into the fold. [Bloomberg, September 2005]
Once people scratch the surface, they realise what a magnificent spirit whisky is. There is such a wide spectrum of flavours, but we do have to demystify whisky, and it’s our role to make it approachable. [Annabel Meikle of Glenmorangie in an interview with Decanter, October 2009]
“Also we wanted to incorporate education, and demystify some of the issues surrounding malt whisky so that consumers can really relate to it. And we wanted to showcase key and rare vintages. Those were the fundamental principles.” [Moodie Report about World of Whiskies, November 2009]
“Whiskey’s quite complicated; this is seen as demystifying it,” said Robin Johnston, regional director at Chivas. [About the Age Matters campaign, October 2010]
Deluxe Scotch whisky brand, Chivas Regal, is aiming to demystify the blended whisky category and in doing so help the trade benefit from the huge – and currently untapped – growth potential for premium blended Scotch whiskies in the UK. […] Currently, however, knowledge of blended whisky amongst consumers is low, highlighting the need to educate drinkers about the category to really capitalise on its potential; … [Oops, Chivas again, Talking Retail, March 2014]
For the packaging of the whiskies, colourful packaging, indicative of the taste profile, and clear flavour descriptors were chosen to try and demystify the single malt whisky category and better communicate the flavours that people can expect. [Drinks Report about Singleton Tailfire and Sunray, March 2014]